FIBA Window 4

AFRICA:

🇬🇳 Guinea (4-2) vs South Sudan (4-2) 🇸🇩

VIP pick

🇦🇴 Angola (4-2) - Congo (2-4) 🇨🇬

Angola has a solid team, solid history and solid preparation matches despite missing couple of players. Congo has nothing. To tell the truth - Congo is probably one of the weakest teams in this Fiba Window. Angola should win with ease in double digits theoretically, but I see way better matches to bet on today, so I am staying away from this game in prematch odds.

🇳🇬 Nigeria (4-2) - Cameroon (5-1) 🇨🇲

Nigeria looks monstrous - great squad, serious squad with one simple goal - to win it all and get to the next phase. Cameroon with Hill and young Missi... Great results so far, but this time Nigeria looks to be way better theoretically. However the only question for me here is how will Nigeria get well together with all these great players in one place and this question does not allow me jump on -6.5 pregame. I will be watching the game and I might be going with something in Live here.

🇲🇱 Mali (5-1) - Ivory Coast (5-1) 🇨🇮

Interesting fight with pretty much equal two teams. There are some young prospects like Pacome Dadiet in Ivory Coast from New York Knicks which I still haven't seen much. At the same time Kobi Simmons should be another big addition for them. Still, too many questions in this one and I don't see any value in any of the sides in this game pregame.

🇹🇳 Tunisia (4-2) - Cape Verde (3-3) 🇨🇻

Tunisia is playing at home here, so the arena for the last day's match should be fully packed. Odds are equal and I see value in the home team playing at home in this low level game. At the same time - too many questions, too much uncertainty to go with either of the sides with confidence. Under might be a choice here as well.

🇸🇳 Senegal (5-1) vs Egypt (3-3) 🇪🇬

VIP pick

ASIA:

🇶🇦 Qatar (4-2) vs China (3-3) 🇨🇳

Qatar has a guaranteed place as the hosts, so these games standing wise means nothing for them. However it looks like they are preparing hard for the WC including this preparation. 10 days in Turkey beating Palestina, then loss to Bahrain and win over Saudi Arabia with a lot of testings. I was expeting a way better squad here from them, but in the end - they are only with Lewis.
China's head coach is talking about a faster play and that he wants his team to run more, but there are too many unanswered questions, so I am staying behind with pregame picks.

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia (3-3) vs Japan (4-2) 🇯🇵

VIP pick

🇱🇧 Lebanon (5-1) vs Korea (3-3) 🇰🇷

Arakji got injured and that might be the main problem for Lebanon. I am sure the arena will be fully packed, but at the same time Korea looks well prepared here with Lee Hyun-jung coming from the NBA summer league to fight for the place in World Cup.
A pretty messed up game with most likely best option to jump in live.
Bookies now have +7 for Korea and 163.5 total which seems unlogical. I am not saying we will stay away from this match pregame - we might still go with Korea + or over, but I will decide later.

EUROPE:

🇫🇮 Finland (4-2) - Sweden (3-3) 🇸🇪

Big fight for the World Cup.

Finland comes with Lauri Markkanen, Jantunen, Maxhuni, Sasu Salin, Miro Little and the rest which seems to be their best squad available vs Sweden with Hakanson and Larsson.

Everything is simple and clear - Finland is better looking to the names and Sweden is always a team looking to surprise. Also, I don't want to go against a team (Sweden) which has their last chance. I rate Finland as ~10pts favorites with a total range in 165-175 more or less. That is exactly what bookies give and I don't want to risk anything on pregame here.

🇭🇺 Hungary (3-3) vs Estonia (3-3) 🇪🇪

(Preview prepared for a VIP pick: Hungary win@1.9, but not published due to odds totally collapsing)

A big fight awaits here with both teams having 3-3. Hungary won 107-72 vs Austria having no main players and Estonia won against weak Lithuania in an OT and lost 61-83 in Italy. Teams are pretty much equal, BUT - we will have Perl, Somogyi, Lukácsi and REUVERS.
Estonia has a good coach and 2-3 higher level players, but the reasons that make take Hungary are:

Reuvers will be with a team - he should be an extreme power in this matchup against Estonia;
Hungary is playing at home in a full arena and this is another GREAT advantage for these teams;
Hungary lost once at home in nearly 2 years (71-74 to France). +15 Belgium, +7 Finland, +20 Romania, +38 Macedonia, +9 Iceland.

All in all, Hungary has their main players ready, crowd ready and Reuvers being the only one from a higher level basketball on court. I think they've got all the chances for a win here.

🇭🇷 Croatia (5-1) - Latvia (3-3) 🇱🇻

Looks like a demolish from Croatia side will come. Porzingis, Zagars, Smits, Kurucs, brothers Bertans - these are all out for Latvia. Silins - got injured against Ukraine in the last preparation match - won't play as well. They remain with 12 people who are only average level compared to:
Hezonja, Zubac, Jaleen Smith and Karlo Matkovic.

Situation is basically more than simple - Latvia, Netherlands and Israel has no chance of advancing.

Despite Gailitis talking about how good defensively Latvia look - this should turn into a hot show with Croatia scoring with no problems and running away sooner or later in something like 103-78.

P.S. the line opened -10 ant 170, now stands -15 and 176.5 and the line's value seems totally gone as the moves were logical.

🇮🇱 Israel (2-4) - Poland (6-0) 🇵🇱

More of a friendly game in Riga looking to the standings despite both coaches taking it "very seriously". Loyd and Ponitka, maybe Balcerowski are the main players in Poland while Israel with Sorkin, Carrington, Blatt & co looks like a better side for sure. However - match is in Riga, not in Israel, the meaning of the game is low and Israel has never been a team to trust too much, especially having no Avdija.
I predict Israel to take a win here, but Poland proved 2 aspects so far:

- they play quality with even average players;
- Loyd is polish (and yet he won couple of games himself already).

No bet pregame here as well, but as I see - public is moving the line towards Poland and that is probably the only game where I do not agree with public move.

🇩🇪 Germany (5-1) - Netherlands (2-4) 🇳🇱

A preview which I have prepared yesterday for a PICK on over 169.5, but the line is now 176.5 and I don't see value:

A group with not much to control. Germany is coming with a top team pretty much and playing their run&gun game with plenty of shooters led by Schroder against not so bad Netherlands team. Germany is hard to stop even for the better teams, especially playing at home, so expecting ~100 from them under the tempo which they tend to play is logical. At the same time - Netherlands, with the help from Bonke and Mast might be a good push for them in a game which does not decide anything having Germany 5-1 and Netherlands 2-4 and not even theoretical hopes for the 3rd place.

Game with such meaning table wise having Germany with top players and extreme tempo should bring us something like 100-80 here, but as I said - the line movement here was too much. We will see for an opportunity to bet something inplay.

🇫🇷 France (5-1) vs Slovenia (3-3) 🇸🇮

2 VIP picks

VIP - €200/month (profit guarantee)

Good luck to everyone with your selections!

@RakasB